Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) -
The No. 1 overall pick in almost every NFL fantasy draft this season will be Minnesota Vikings' star running back Adrian Peterson.
Despite coming back from major knee surgery just nine months earlier, "All Day" rushed for 2,097 yards, the second-best total in NFL history.
That's nothing you didn't already know, however.
But what if you have the second choice? Who should you choose?
The most popular options are: running backs Doug Martin, Arian Foster Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch. Of course, you could also choose record-breaking receiver Calvin Johnson or if your league rules favor a quarterback ... Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Peyton Manning.
Sometimes too many choices is a bad thing, so let's try to narrow down your options.
The league is filled with top-quality quarterbacks in 2013. Enough that you could still get a 5,000-yard passer in the fifth- or sixth-round (Matthew Stafford's current fantasyfootballcalculator.com ADP is 63.7). And excellent options such as Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck and Tony Romo are going even later than that.
For this reason, unless you play in a league which starts two-quarterbacks each week, I am going to throw out the entire quarterback option.
And while Johnson posted an otherworldly 1,964 yards last season, he also managed just five touchdowns. In fact, in three of his six NFL seasons, he's caught five-or-less scores. Therefore, Johnson's fantasy value fluctuates too much to be selected with the No. 2 overall selection.
We have eliminated the quarterback position and the best receiver in the league, which means your pick must come from the running back spot.
But which one?
Let's evaluate your top four options.
Arian Foster, Houston - Foster has plenty of rushing ability and is an excellent pass catcher. but there are two primary reasons you might not want to draft him at No. 2. His health is always in question. The man just can't help but get nicked up and he's already amassed 1,115 touches over the past three season. He's never started an entire 16-game schedule and he's already missing time in camp with calf and back issues. The second concern is his downward slide in yards-per-game over the past two seasons. He averaged 101 ypg in 2010, 94.2 in 2011 and 89.0 ypg in 2012 and his average ypc has fallen in each season. That's not the direction you want your top pick to be headed.
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle - "Beast Mode" has put up huge numbers over the past two seasons (2794 yards, 23 rushing TDs) and figures to get another heavy workload in 2013. But fantasy owners have to worry that the Seahawks offense is too one-dimensional, particularly with the loss of newly-acquired wideout Percy Harvin. Taking Lynch at No. 2 requires a fantasy owner to believe that Russell Wilson can keep linebackers and secondaries from cheating up into the box. I'm not sold he can do that despite his successes last season.
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay - In his rookie season, Martin came along much quicker than anyone could have expected. Instead of sharing time with incumbent LeGarrette Blount, Martin grabbed hold of the starting role and didn't let go. It helped that Martin is an accomplished pass blocker with excellent hands who didn't need to leave the field in passing situations. Like Lynch, he'll need his quarterback (Josh Freeman) to play better.
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City - Like Peterson, Charles has come back from ACL surgery as strong as ever. In 2012 he rushed 285 times for 1,509 yards and caught 35 balls for another 236 yards. However, for a top running back he hasn't got into the end zone often enough. Charles has averaged just 4.8 TDs per season and has never scored more than eight touchdowns. On the other hand, new head coach Andy Reid had a "like-styled" back in Philadelphia (LeSean McCoy) and made him into a fantasy stud. With no other viable options in the backfield to share the workload, Reid figures to use Charles more than any of his previous coaches. I like that and think Charles will be the second-best fantasy back in the NFL this season.