NFL Betting Manifesto: Secrets of the Pros
By Joe Duffy
Sports Network) -
The sportsbooks hope you never read this. Professional gamblers don't actually have "inside information" but they sure know where to find it and how to use it. Here is the ultimate guide to NFL gambling, the NFL handicapping opus.
The first key to dominating sports betting is great information. From Billy Walters picks to elite professional gamblers, it all starts with information.
The finest locale for news and notes is to go to Google News (news.google.com) and enter the names of the two teams. For example input "Eagles Cowboys" and every article on every news site recognized by Google News appears.
At Joe Duffy's Picks, we cut and paste all applicable gambling evidence onto our sharp players clipboard, which we trade with a select group of whales. However, every major sports site from Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, Fox Sports, Pro Football Talk, CBS Sportsline, and The Sports Network has blogs and/or previews. Yahoo! Sports is middling at best for exclusive intel. NFL Nation at ESPN is the best portal of any.
FoxSheets is outstanding for yards per rushing attempt, yards per pass, and yards per play relative to what their opponent normally gets or gives up depending on if one is scrutinizing offense or defense. The key phrase "relative to" is crucial. It is broadly a power rating for each unit running and passing on each side of the ball.
TeamRankings is excellent for Margin of Cover, or the less accurate but more dramatic rename of "sweat barometer." MOC is similar to scoring margin, but it is measured by how much a team covers or fails to cover the point spread. Effectively it is against the spread rather than straight up scoring margin.
Many sports handicappers believe MOC is invaluable in isolating under and overvalued teams. TeamRankings has sundry other excellent statistics such as total plays per game. Key metrics are ranked and organized in spreadsheet format so one can isolate the fastest and slowest paced teams for totals betting. The site is an outstanding resource.
Covers is very good for displaying total yards per game yards per play margin for the contest. This helps spot how much a team wins a total yards matchup. We have said time and time again that won-loss straight up record is the most overrated stat on earth. Phil Steele does a very good job in his notebook finding discrepancies between final scores and the stat sheet.
Covers does well with splits, but that is an angle more prosperous in other sports, yet integral in football too.
Sports Insights is very good for using public betting patterns and has an outstanding database for systems. We have explained why we now de-emphasize systems, but still know they are excellent for corroboration of betting picks. Spreadapedia and Killer Sports have very good databases as well.
Obviously one needs to know specific angles and situations to prey upon such as letdown, look ahead, sandwich, effect of injuries and line-up changes, motivational variances, and oddsmakers over or under-reactions just to scratch the surface. But technology brings a treasure trove of knowledge for professional gamblers to gain the upper hand over bookies.
The professional sports services at OffshoreInsiders.com certainly have and will continue to exploit available wisdom for years to come.
The author, Joe Duffy has his picks part of GodsTips, anchor of
OffshoreInsiders.com. A long-time veteran of the sports betting industry, Duffy
trained under NFL legends-turned-handicappers Ray Scott and Hank Stram.