The myth of the double-digit rivalry exposed
By Joe Duffy
(Sports Network) - Sports bettors have plenty to be thankful for, most importantly accurate information. There are several versions of the "bet the underdog in big rivalries," the so-called "throw out the point spread when these two meet." But does this hold up from a betting standpoint?
"Rivalry" is a bit subjective in and of itself, not to mention does one bet the underdog: regardless of the spread, just the big underdog and if so, how does one define "big?"
Using a Yahoo article as an independent source to help us isolate which games quality as rivalries and using the most common assertion of "double-digit underdogs in rivalries," we put it to test.
Fact is there is no edge. Here is how double-digit underdogs have performed in the biggest rivalry games.
GAME +10 OR MORE DOG
LSU - Arkansas 4-2
Florida - Florida State 0-5
Arizona - Arizona State 4-2
South Carolina - Clemson 1-0
Washington - Washington State 4-1
Ole Miss - Mississippi State 1-3
Virginia - Virginia Tech 1-4
Notre Dame - USC 3-4
Alabama - Auburn 4-2
Georgia - Georgia Tech 2-1
Oregon - Oregon State 2-4
Army - Navy 2-4
Oklahoma - Oklahoma State 5-4
Ohio State - Michigan 2-4
Oklahoma - Texas 2-2
Miami - Florida State 4-3
Utah - Brigham Young 2-1
Simply put, if anything there is a slight edge to going with the favorite. The only sharp I know who buys into this non-angle does have a better subsystem. He prefers underdogs of 10-20, correctly stating that in complete mismatches the angle would not apply.
This is true that there is a slight edge in big underdogs in games that are not expected to be total blowouts, but the large point spreads generally result in routs larger than the oddsmakers expect.
Among our Golden Rules of Betting is that "conventional logic" is sports betting?s ultimate oxymoron. Above is the latest example.
The author, Joe Duffy has his picks part of GodsTips, anchor of
OffshoreInsiders.com. A long-time veteran of the sports betting industry, Duffy
trained under NFL legends-turned-handicappers Ray Scott and Hank Stram.