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Predictability is a fantasy

Drew Brees has thrown for 4,332 yards and 28 touchdowns against 16 interceptions.
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - What do fantasy owners want out of their draft picks? Performance and predictability.

And what's the one thing fantasy owners have no chance of getting from their choices? That's right - predictability.

Here is how crazy the 2008 fantasy football season has been.

Of the first five drafted quarterbacks, based on Average Draft Position (ADP), only one has produced top-five fantasy points through 15 weeks. That quarterback is Drew Brees, who was likely the fourth quarterback selected in your preseason draft. The New Orleans Saints QB has thrown for 4,332 yards and 28 touchdowns against 16 interceptions to lead everyone in fantasy scoring. Meanwhile, the other four selections were hampered for some or all of the season because of injury (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Carson Palmer).

The story is similar at the running back position where top-five selections LaDainian Tomlinson (toe), Brian Westbrook (ribs, ankle), Joseph Addai (shoulder) and Steven Jackson (hamstring) all suffered various injuries to keep them from playing at their best. Only Adrian Peterson (320 carries, 1,581 yards, 9 TDs) has avoided missing a game and that's why he is the only running back in the top-five.

At the wide receiver position it wasn't injury that has left just one top-five receiver actually producing at the expected level. Neither Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Reggie Wayne or Braylon Edwards has missed significant time due to injury, but none of them has produced top-five statistics. Only Andre Johnson, selected fifth among receivers has produced and his numbers (103 catches for 1,408 yards and six TDs) have him the No.1 wideout.

It is only at tight end where a majority of the top-five have stuck to form. Three of the top-five actually played as a top-five should - Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark.

So as we head into "Championship Week" we surely must know by now that anything can and probably will happen.

Top-Five QBs by ADP...2008 Fantasy Rank
Tom Brady 1 54
Peyton Manning 2 6
Tony Romo 3 7
Drew Brees 4 1
Carson Palmer 5 40
Top-Five RBs by ADP...2008 Fantasy Rank
L. Tomlinson 1 12
Adrian Peterson 2 3
Brian Westbrook 3 6
Joseph Addai 4 39
Steven Jackson 5 21
Top-Five WRs by ADP...2008 Fantasy Rank
Randy Moss 1 9
Terrell Owens 2 13
Reggie Wayne 3 15
Braylon Edwards 4 31
Andre Johnson 5 1
Top-Five TEs by ADP...2008 Fantasy Rank
Jason Witten 1 2
Antonio Gates 2 5
Kellen Winslow 3 10
Todd Heap 4 25
Dallas Clark 5 3

Comments? Criticism? Applause? Contact Steve Schwarz at

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