Shonn Greene should post 1,200 yards on the ground and around 10-12 touchdowns.
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) -
In the sixth installment of a series, we return to the AFC East and evaluate the New York Jets. The 9-7 Jets were 17th in scoring at 21.8 ppg and No.1 in points allowed at 14.8 ppg.
Mark Sanchez - As a second-year quarterback, Sanchez should be much improved. That doesn't mean, however, that his fantasy ranking will increase. With just 2,444 yards and 12 touchdowns versus 20 interceptions in his rookie season, he would have to go a long way to become a starting "fantasy" quarterback. The Jets are a run-oriented team (60.7% rushing plays, 39.3% passing plays) and that won't change much in 2010, despite massive turnover at the running back position. Fantasy owners aren't expecting much from Sanchez as evidenced by his ADP (Average Draft Position) which so far has only risen from around 150 in 2009 to 140 in early drafts.
Shonn Greene - Greene was barely on the fantasy radar screen last season (2009 ADP 140) and except for one game against Oakland (144 yards, two touchdowns) didn't do much to warrant attention during the regular season. Then in the playoffs, with starter Thomas Jones hurting, Greene exploded for 135 yards against Cincinnati and 128 yards against the San Diego Chargers. After the Jets had seen what Greene could do as a primary back, they handed him the keys to the offense...almost. Jets management didn't re-sign Jones and then traded Leon Washington to Seattle, however they did bring in LaDainian Tomlinson for "insurance" and drafted another running back - Joe McKnight. Still, with the number of attempts Greene should accumulate, he should be a top running back this season and fantasy owners see that too. He should post 1,200 yards on the ground and around 10-12 touchdowns. Greene is being selected in the early part of the second round (ADP 13) so there is no "bargain" here, just fair market value.
LaDainian Tomlinson - "LT" is a perfect example of how quickly a running back can lose his value. He was the No.1 overall selection in 2008 and still a first rounder last year (2009 ADP 8.0). However, it is obvious that Tomlinson has lost a step and the Chargers went in a different direction in the off-season. Now in New York, Tomlinson won't be a starter or barring injury a fantasy contributor. His current ADP is near 100, which is right about where he belongs with other backup running backs like Donald Brown, Reggie Bush and his old teammate Darren Sproles. As a fantasy player, he's a "handcuff" to Greene only.
Joe McKnight - In keeper leagues, McKnight may have some value, because Tomlinson won't be in New York for very long, however, for 2010 McKnight will only have fantasy value if the two guys in front of him get injured.
Santonio Holmes - What used to be a weak receiving corps, now has plenty of talent. Holmes was a big-play receiver in Pittsburgh and can do the same for the Jets once he gets back onto the field after serving a four-game suspension. In 2009 he had 1,248 yards and five scores for the Steelers, but how many targets he gets in New York is a difficult number to determine. He's the No.1 Jets receiver off the board, despite the suspension, with an ADP of 80, but I like the "other prima donna" a little bit better this season.
Braylon Edwards - Edwards is the "other prima donna" and the receiver I think will put up the best Jets statistics in 2010. Of course with Edwards, it's all about whether he wants to play because he is the definition of a "diva." And he drops too many balls. Still, he should "out-point" Holmes in 2010 and if you draft him around the eighth round you should get your monies' worth.
Jerricho Cotchery - I'm afraid that once Holmes comes back from his suspension that Cotchery will be "out in the cold." Both Holmes and Edwards are more talented than Cotchery and will get what few opportunities that arise in this run-first offense. His current ADP has dropped more than 40 spots from last year and he's a 13th-round selection this time around.
Brad Smith - With Holmes, Edwards, Cotchery and tight end Dustin Keller vying for most of the pass receiving opportunities, Smith will be primarily a special teams player. He'll have no fantasy value in 2010.
Dustin Keller - Keller is a nice "receiving" tight end who has proven in his first two seasons that he can post around 45-50 receptions for about 500 yards and a couple of scores. Unfortunately in 2010 there are many other tight ends who will post better numbers than that. It explains why his fantasy value has dropped from an ADP of 130 in 2009 to 155 this year.
Nick Folk - The Jets signed Folk in February to replace free agent Jay Feely who eventually signed with the Arizona Cardinals. Folk struggled down the stretch in 2009 hitting just four of his final 11 tries. Still, in the conservative Jets offense which relies on running and a great defense, Folk should get plenty of opportunities. He's the fourth kicker off the board in early mock drafts with an ADP of 162.
Although the Jets defense finished No.1 in points allowed, as a fantasy defense they were a middle-of-the-pack bunch. New York finished 12th among the 32 teams (32 sacks, 14 fumbles, 17 interceptions, no safeties, one kick return). They were, however, No.1 in passing yards allowed (152.9) and No.8 in rushing yards (98.6). To this formidable group management added CB Antonio Cromartie and spent a No.1 draft choice (No.29 overall) on another CB in Boise State's Kyle Wilson, but nothing on the line to help the pass rush. They will be one of the top defenses again in 2010, but they'll have to be since they are being drafted first among defenses in early mock drafts (ADP 87).