Fantasy football's unpredictability

Drew Brees, as predicted, is one of the top fantasy QBs.
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - We are six weeks into the 2008 NFL Fantasy Football season and it's very interesting to note the unpredictability at some positions. It's what makes fantasy sports so intriguing. It's also why we spend so much time studying the numbers...trying to predict the unpredictable, control the uncontrollable.

Yes, Tony Romo and Drew Brees lead all QBs in fantasy points and were predicted to be among the top-four before the season began, but after those two fantasy studs the predictability has ended.

Philip Rivers is third in points, but was an afterthought on draft day. His ADP (average draft position) was 117 - meaning he was likely a 12th-round selection. Jay Cutler (ADP 83), Aaron Rodgers (ADP 120) and Kurt Warner (ADP 127) make up the current top six.

Meanwhile, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb have similar numbers to Jason Campbell and Kyle Orton, who were probably waiver pickups in your league.

At running back, consensus No.1 and No.2, LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson, are 11th and 10th in running back points, respectively. Brian Westbrook and Steve Jackson aren't in the top dozen either.

The leader at running back is New Orleans' Reggie Bush, with an ADP of 31. In most leagues there were 12-13 backs picked ahead of him. And Ronnie Brown is seventh overall and wasn't even in the top-150 coming off his 2007 knee injury.

At wide receiver, half of the preseason top-10 aren't performing up to expectations. Obviously the injury to Tom Brady has had a profound effect on Randy Moss' production, which has been nearly non-existent to date. Braylon Edwards finally woke up this week with 154 yards and a touchdown, but he has been horrible for much of the season. Marques Colston's five-week injury is a legitimate reason why he is not in the top-10, but what about Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh?

Greg Jennings is the points leader at receiver, the beneficiary of Rodgers' excellent start as Brett Favre's replacement. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are second and fourth and it explains why Warner is a fantasy "diamond- in-the-rough" this year.

I'm not sure how this will help you this year, but it's something to think about when you are bidding into the stratosphere for one perceived superstar next season. Maybe, just maybe, you should let him go. Sometimes mediocrity can be very expensive.

Comments? Criticism? Applause? Contact Steve Schwarz at
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