Buffalo Bills 2010 Fantasy Analysis

Fred Jackson actually had a decent season rushing the ball.
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - In the eighth installment of a series, we return to the AFC East for the final time and evaluate the Buffalo Bills. The Bills (6-10) finished 2009 averaging 16.1 ppg (28th of 32 teams) on offense and yielding 20.4 ppg on defense (16th).

Until this team gets their offensive line straightened out and decides on who their "quarterback of the future" will be, they won't have a lot of fantasy value. Still, there is talent at running back and a solid fantasy receiver in Lee Evans if they can solve their other problems.


Trent Edwards - None of the three quarterbacks on the current Buffalo roster, Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm inspire confidence from fantasy owners and neither presumed starter Edwards nor the other two are anywhere on most quarterback ADP lists. Edwards played eight games last year and his best passing total in any game was 230 yards. He finished the year with 1,169 yards, six TD passes and seven interceptions. Fitzpatrick was equally inept, with only two of his 10 games having thrown for more than 200 yards and finished with nine TD passes and 10 interceptions. Maybe the answer will end up being the second-year quarterback Brohm, but it's unlikely that any of the three will hold much fantasy value in 2010.

Running Back

Fred Jackson - Jackson actually had a decent season rushing the ball (4.5 ypc) and in the three games in which he was given at least 20 carries, totaled 163, 99 and 212 yards. Before Jackson can have a consistent fantasy value, the team will have decide what to do with Marshawn Lynch and how they are going to use top draft pick C.J. Spiller. Currently, Jackson has an ADP of 77 and is the second Bills running back off the board behind the untested rookie.

C.J. Spiller - Fantasy owners and probably the Bills themselves don't appear to know how Spiller will be used in 2010. Will he be a "Percy Harvin type" running back/slot receiver/returner or will he be the workhorse of the ground game? As of the end of May, fantasy owners are selecting Spiller in the sixth round (ADP 65). I suspect the Bills will use him at multiple positions, but until they construct an offense as explosive as Minnesota, Spiller won't produce Harvin- type numbers (790 rushing, 135 receiving, six TDs)

Marshawn Lynch - I truly don't expect Lynch to be on the Buffalo roster when the season begins, but that might be a good thing. At the moment, he's listed as the No.3 back on their depth chart and has an ADP is the 145-150 range. At that price, he's got little downside and if Lynch were to get traded to a team with more opportunities to play, he might have a decent upside as a 13th round pick.

Wide Receiver

Lee Evans - Despite a merry-go-round situation at quarterback and the second receiver spot, Evans has produced solid numbers for the past six seasons. Last year was his lowest yardage total (612) and per-catch-average (13.9), but he did get into the endzone seven times, the most since 2006. With Terrell Owens gone, Evans should once again be the focus of the team's passing game and a 65- catch, 900-yard, six TD season is possible. Given his ADP of 110, that would be a nice price for those statistics.

Steve Johnson - In his third NFL season and with just 12 receptions on his resume, Johnson is expected to compete with James Hardy (10 career receptions) for the spot opposite Evans. Neither receiver will likely get enough chances to have much fantasy value and both are missing from most wide receiver lists. Should they fail to produce results, the Bills did draft Marcus Easley in the fourth round and the UConn product has fine size and speed.

Tight End

Derek Schouman - Neither Schouman, nor second-year tight end Shawn Nelson are of fantasy value in this weak passing offense (30th overall at 157.2 ypg).


Rian Lindell - Lindell is a solid kicker who finished 12th in points with 108. He connected on 28-of-33 field goals. He's a middle-of-the-pack kicker who can be picked at anytime in the final two rounds. He has a current ADP of 211.


The Buffalo defense finished 15th in fantasy points (111) in 2009. They didn't get to the opposing quarterbacks enough as evidenced by their low sack total (33), but did have a solid interception total (28). Just five fumbles hurt their results. The Bills currently don't rank in the top-18 of defenses being selected, therefore even if you decide to choose them you can wait until the last round.

Comments? Criticism? Applause? Contact Steve Schwarz at sschwarz@sportsnetwork.com.
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