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ADP versus Reality

Draft No.1 owners didn't draft Reggie Bush (ADP 25.6) until the sixth round.
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - There is Average Draft Position (ADP), the conglomeration of thousands of mock drafts, and there is your draft, the only one that you care about. I had my first draft last night and the variation from ADP to my draft was significant.

Let's take a look at some of what I saw.

The mock draft participants went off last year's statistics too much and didn't pay attention to what was going on this summer. In my draft, people were obviously paying attention to camp and exhibition games.

Reggie Bush has not recovered from his injuries as fast as the team would have liked. He's not been practicing or playing any games, yet his RapidDraft ADP is 25.6 - way too high. Draft No.1 owners saw this and didn't draft him until the sixth round.

Jonathan Stewart has had an Achilles problem all camp long and because of this his draft slot dropped from an ADP of 50.8 to 78 in our draft. Correspondingly, DeAngelo Williams was picked at No.6 overall, slightly ahead of his ADP.

Derrick Ward's ADP was 42.1, but fantasy owners in our league noticed that Carnell "Cadillac" Williams has run nicely in exhibition games and might make the Tampa Bay backfield a three-man rotation.

Willis McGahee's ADP was 69.9, but our owners have watched as Ray Rice looks to be the starter, so McGahee was drafted in the 11th round, while Rice was drafted 50th overall. While No.50 might have been too high for Rice in a three- man backfield which also includes Le'Ron McClain, McGahee's position was probably more correct than his sixth-round ADP.

Despite a very good 2008, Thomas Jones (1,312 rushing yards, 13 TDs) was selected with the 52nd pick, much lower than his ADP of 27.3. Looks like our fantasy owners believe that the three-headed backfield, including Leon Washington and Shonn Greene, will not be good for Jones' statistics.

Quarterbacks were chosen earlier than on the RapidDraft ADP list. Drew Brees (ADP 32.8 - 10), Tom Brady (23.0 - 12) and Peyton Manning (42.1 - 21) were all picked much before their ADP.

All owners passed on Steve Jackson in the first round and most passed on him a second time before he was finally selected at No.19. Apparently, the owners have been "burned" by his injury prowess and the expected ineptitude of the St. Louis Rams offense.

Frank Gore took a nose dive from an ADP of 10.2 to 20. Possibly owners have seen that Glen Coffee might steal some goal line touches from Gore who already had a problem getting into the end zone enough for a first-round selection.

ADP vs last night's draft
Player Position RapidDraft ADP Draft No1
Steven Jackson RB 5.2 19
Frank Gore RB 10.2 20
Brandon Jacobs RB 14.4 22
Andre Johnson WR 15.4 7
Tom Brady QB 23 12
Reggie Bush RB 25.6 64
Joseph Addai RB 27.3 37
Thomas Jones RB 27.3 52
Drew Brees QB 32.8 10
Derrick Ward RB 42.1 70
Peyton Manning QB 42.1 21
Jonathan Stewart RB 50.8 78
Willis McGahee RB 69.9 122


Comments? Criticism? Applause? Contact Steve Schwarz at sschwarz@sportsnetwork.com.

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